Tag Archives: Climate

Biggest Threat to the Economy Could Come From Outer Space


Imagine waking up just after midnight to a sky so bright you swear it must be early morning. Imagine seeing the Northern Lights as far south as Cuba or Hawaii. Imagine that the same phenomena behind both has also generated electric fields in the ground strong enough to power small electronics. That’s what happened in 1859, when the earth was struck by the most severe geomagnetic storm ever recorded.

Forget asset bubbles, recessions, or hurricanes—space weather could prove far more economically harmful. A severe geomagnetic storm—a sudden, violent eruption of gas and magnetic fields from the sun’s surface—could prove particularly devastating. If the 1859 storm, known as the “Carrington event,” were to recur today it could cause trillions of dollars in economic damage and take years to recover from, according to estimates.

The sun would sneeze and the economy could shatter.

That’s a worst-case scenario, of course. NASA Administrator Charles Bolden was less dramatic at a space-weather conference hosted by the agency last week, though he did say such events can be “just as punishing as a tornado” and are “a problem that crosses all borders.” Magnetic storms can force Earth’s magnetic fields to go temporarily haywire, overwhelming power grids.

The 1859 event didn’t cause as much damage as it would today—electrical engineering was in its infancy—but it was globally felt. Here’s how a 2008 space-weather report from the National Academy of Sciences described that year’s storm:

From Aug. 28 through Sept. 4, auroral displays of extraordinary brilliance were observed throughout North and South America, Europe, Asia and Australia, and were seen as far south as Hawaii, the Caribbean and Central America in the Northern Hemisphere and in the Southern Hemisphere as far north as Santiago, Chile.

Even after daybreak, when the aurora was no longer visible, its presence continued to be felt through the effect of the auroral currents. Magnetic observatories recorded disturbances in Earth’s field so extreme that magnetometer traces were driven off scale, and telegraph networks around the world—the “Victorian Internet”—experienced major disruptions and outages…. In several locations, operators disconnected their systems from the batteries and sent messages using only the current induced by the aurora.

In other words, they literally ran the telegraphs from the electrical fields generated by the storm.

The 1859 event may be an extreme case, but there are more-recent examples of such space weather: In March 1989 a geomagnetic storm took down northeastern Canada’s Hydro-Quebec power grid in just 90 seconds, leaving millions without power in the cold for up to nine hours. And a set of “Halloween” solar storms between October and November of 2003 sparked a National Academy of Sciences-led meeting on the societal and economic impact of space weather, which served as the basis of the report.

But it’s not just scientists who are concerned about space weather. Lloyd’s of London, the giant insurer, issued a report on the issue in 2010. In the foreword to the report, Lloyd’s Tom Bolt warned of a scientist-predicted spike between 2012 and 2015. “In terms of cycles, we are in late autumn and heading into winter,” he wrote then. A severe space-weather event could prove devastating, according to the Lloyd’s report.

In the worst case it can permanently damage transformers. In most cases, systems protecting power grids will detect problems and switch off before serious damage occurs. However, this may lead to a cascade effect in which more and more systems are switched off, leading to complete grid shutdown. In these situations it will take many hours to restore grid operation, causing disruption to operations and services, and potential loss of income.

The 1989 storm permanently damaged a $12 million New Jersey transformer. In 1921, a storm 10 times as bad struck. Today, that storm would permanently damage roughly 350 transformers, causing blackouts that would affect as many as 130 million people, according to a Metatech estimate.

An outside analysis conducted by Metatech for the Electromagnetic Pulse Commission and the Federal Emergency Management Agency found that the effects of a severe geomagnetic storm would not only be widespread, but long-lived. Such an event has “not only the potential for large-scale blackouts but, more troubling … the potential for permanent damage that could lead to extraordinarily long restoration times,” Metatech’s John Kappenman told the NAS report’s authors.

In a globalized world, all kinds of sectors would be impacted by a power failure. Fuel, food, water, sanitation, communications, medical/health, finance, and transportation would all feel cascading effects. Many businesses rely solely on satellite navigation for transportation on land and sea, and cell phones would be vulnerable to interference.

“Impacts would be felt on interdependent infrastructures, with, for example, potable water distribution affected within several hours; perishable foods and medications lost in about 12-24 hours; and immediate or eventual loss of heating/air conditioning, sewage disposal, phone service, transportation, fuel resupply, and so on,” the NAS report found.

Hurricane Katrina caused roughly $80 billion to $125 billion in damage, according to the report. A future geomagnetic storm like the 1859 event could cost 10 to 20 times as much and take up to a decade to fully recover from, according to Metatech’s estimates.

Image courtesy of NASA

This article originally published at National Journal

Read more: http://mashable.com/2013/06/13/threat-economy-outer-space/

Distant Super-Earth Exoplanet Has A Climate Perfect For Simple Life

While astrobiologists are increasingly hoping to find microbial life dwelling on or just beneath the surface of Mars, exoplanet hunters have been continually searching for habitable worlds far from our local corner of the Milky Way. Just recently, three Earth-like planets were discovered hovering 40 light-years away from us, and a new study, published in the journal Astrobiology, may have just described another.

Its roughly 40 percent larger than Earth, and its the outermost of five planets orbiting a star that is both smaller and cooler than our own Sun. Although its a lot further away 1,200 light-years, to be precise this new study suggests that the Kepler-62f may be able to sustain life.

First identified by the mechanical wunderkind that is the Kepler space observatory, little was known about it at the time. A team of researchers from the Universities of California Los Angeles (UCLA) and Washington turned to cutting-edge computer simulations in order to work out what it may be like to wander around on its surface.

We found there are multiple atmospheric compositions that allow it to be warm enough to have surface liquid water, Aomawa Shields, a National Science Foundation astronomy and astrophysics postdoctoral fellow in UCLAs department of physics and astronomy, and the studys lead author, said in a statement. This makes it a strong candidate for a habitable planet.

The relative sizes of recently discovered habitable-zone planets and Earth. From left to right: Kepler-69c, Kepler-62e, this studys Kepler-62f, and our own pale blue dot. NASA/Ames/JPL-Caltech

The shape of the planets orbital path was the first thing that needed to be calculated. To do so, the team used a renowned computer model named HNBody; this was combined with two tried-and-tested climate change models to simulate its possible climate configurations as it orbited its star.

The models assumed the atmosphere of Kepler-62f could be the same thickness as Earths all the way up to 12 times as thick. A variety of concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere were also considered, ranging from the same as Earths to up to 2,500 times that.

Based on what we know about microbial life, and considering the dimness of the alien star, Kepler-62f would only be completely habitable throughout its entire orbit if its atmosphere was 3 to 5 times thicker than our own, and it was composed entirely of carbon dioxide. This would ensure that a potent greenhouse effect would be in operation, which would warm the planet to habitable levels for microscopic life.

The most likely orbital parameters calculated by the models suggest that the planet would indeed by far away enough from its star to allow carbon dioxide to steadily accumulate in the atmosphere over time, as opposed to being blasted away by powerful solar radiation. Even if there was only an Earth-typical amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, the temperatures would still go above waters freezing point for portions of the year.

The early Earth has a carbon dioxide-rich atmosphere thanks to prolonged volcanic activity. IM_photo/Shutterstock

Wherever you find water on Earth, there is life and such an atmospheric configuration would allow liquid water to be present at the surface. With water and carbon dioxide, photosynthesizing alien life, if it exists there, could one day convert Kepler-62fs atmosphere into one brimming with oxygen.

However, without a strong magnetic field, too much incoming solar radiation may render life at the surface impossible. Still, this somewhat damp and warm planet appears to be in the habitable zone, so thats certainly something worth noting.

Photo Gallery

Read more: http://www.iflscience.com/space/distant-super-earth-exoplanet-has-climate-perfect-simple-life

West Antarctic Glaciers Speeding Toward the Sea, Study Finds


This aerial photo of Wednesday, Oct. 31, 2012, shows the New York skyline and harbor after Superstorm Sandy struck the city.
Image: Mark Lennihan/Associated Press

Bad news from the Southern Hemisphere: the West Antarctic ice sheet is shedding ice at an accelerating rate, with six large glaciers in this region discharging nearly the same amount of ice as the entire Greenland ice sheet, according to a new study.

The study is the first to combine observations from satellites, radar data, and other remote sensing methods to construct a long-term record of ice movement trends for six of the fastest-flowing glaciers in Antarctica.

Published this week in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, the study examines glaciers in the Amundsen Sea Embayment of West Antarctica. The glaciers in this region include the Pine Island Glacier, which made headlines in recent years by discharging massive icebergs into the ocean.

This region also encompasses the Thwaites, Haynes, Smith, Pope and Kohler glaciers, each of which are behemoths in their own right.

A research team from the University of California at Irvine and NASA found that the total amount of ice coming off these glaciers has increased by 77 percent since 1973, with much of that increase coming since 2000. Together, these glaciers drain one-third of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, or about 158 million square miles of ice, the study said.

We need to know how quickly and extensively parts of Antarctica as well as the Greenland ice sheet are melting in order to accurately project how high global sea levels are likely to rise during the next several decades. It’s melting land-based ice, not the melting North Pole sea ice, that contributes to rising seas.

Pine Island Glacier

A massive crack running about 18 miles Pine Island Glacier’s floating tongue in 2011.

Image: NASA

According to a 2013 report from the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), average global sea level rise will likely be in the range of 10.2 to 32 inches by the end of the century, depending on the amounts of greenhouse gas emissions between now and then.

If emissions continue on a business as usual path, which has been the trend in recent years, the IPCC said global average sea level rise could be closer to 40 inches — which would doom some low-lying coastal cities and nations, from Bangkok to Miami and Bangladesh.

Illustrating the high stakes involved in the fate of West Antarctica, the study found that these six glaciers contributed about 10% of all the global average sea level rise that occurred between 2005 and 2010. If all six glaciers were to melt completely (which is not expected to happen during this century), global average sea level would rise by a catastrophic 3.9 feet, the study said.

The new study also found, for the first time, that West Antarctic glaciers are not only flowing faster at the point where their base meets the ocean, which is known as the grounding line. Instead, areas as far inland as nearly 160 miles are also speeding up their march to the sea.

Until this study, it was not known that sections of glaciers deep into the interior are also speeding up their movement. This is a troubling sign because of what it implies for sea level rise in the future, according to the study’s lead author, Jeremie Mouginot of the University of California at Irvine.

“Increased ice discharge will have an impact on how [much] the sea level is going to rise,” Mouginot told Mashable.

Mouginot says most of the action is taking place at the grounding line, then having ripple effects inland.

In the same way that plaque slowly rots a tooth until it falls out, mild ocean temperatures are thought to be causing ice to thin and retreat where these glaciers meet the sea. This is likely setting in motion a chain of events that results in a far more unstable glacier.

Sea level rise

Projections of global mean sea level rise over the 21st century, depending on greenhouse gas emissions.

Image: U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

The grounding line positions of these glaciers have been retreating at a rate of 0.6 miles per year, the study found, which is among the fastest rates of glacier retreat in the world.

According to Mouginot, all six of the glaciers in this study come into contact with the same body of water, which indicates that higher sea surface temperatures are likely playing a role in speeding up melting. Other studies have found evidence for this in other parts of the globe, including Greenland, and in other parts of Antarctica.

“I think there is more warm ocean going beneath the ice shelf,” Mouginot says.

It’s not absolutely clear exactly what is causing ocean temperatures to increase in that area — but global warming from the increased amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, is almost certainly playing a role.

“What I can say is, if you look at Greenland, it is changing, and West Antarctica is changing a lot,” Mouginot says. “And they are really far apart from each other. I don’t think it’s a regional change occurring. I think it’s more global.”

The IPCC is scheduled to release another major climate report on Sunday evening eastern time, which is expected to detail some of the likely impacts of global sea level rise during the next several decades, among other findings.

Read more: http://mashable.com/2014/03/28/west-antarctic-ice-melting-sea-level/

New Weather Forecast Model Can Pinpoint Severe Storms Up to 15 Hours in Advance


Image: Mashable composite. NASA

Meteorologists at the National Weather Service (NWS) gained a new, sharper weapon in their arsenal of computer models on Tuesday, which could result in better weather forecasts. The agency put its newly updated High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR, which is pronounced like the word “her,” except with many more Rs), into operational use after several years of experimental simulations.

The model will help meteorologists pinpoint the development of damaging weather conditions that are too small-scale and short-term to be detected by other models, such as derecho events like the one that shut off the lights to hundreds of thousands of people from Ohio to Virginia on June 29, 2012.

According to the NWS, the newly supercharged HRRR model, which had been in use before Tuesday but at a far coarser resolution, will allow forecasters to make better warnings of flash flooding, heavy snowfall, and the likelihood of severe thunderstorms. It could also make aviation forecasts more reliable, helping pilots steer clear of turbulence.

HRRR Radar

The key to the HRRR’s upgrade is a major narrowing of its spatial resolution, which is akin from going from taking a wide shot photograph to using a zoom lens. The spatial resolution of the improved model is four times finer than what was used before, allowing it to capture smaller-scale details, such as individual thunderstorms, that it might otherwise have missed. According to a press release, the improvements made each pixel in the model go from the size of an entire city, at eight miles wide, to the size of a neighborhood within that city, at two miles wide.

The new HRRR model was five years in the making from a team at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Earth System Research Laboratory in Boulder, Colorado. The model is now run on supercomputers in Virginia and Florida on an hourly basis, and it takes advantage of real-time radar data to produce more accurate projections of how weather systems will move and develop. Its forecasts extend out to 15 hours in advance, compared to other weather models that project up to 10 to 14 days.

“This is the first in a new generation of weather prediction models designed to better represent the atmosphere and mechanics that drive high-impact weather events,” said William Lapenta, Ph.D., director of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, part of the National Weather Service, in a press release. “The HRRR is a tool delivering forecasters a more accurate depiction of hazardous weather to help improve our public warnings and save lives.”

How the model works

The new model takes about 1,200 computer cores to run, and keeps them busy for each hour, NOAA research meteorologist Stan Benjamin told Mashable. He said the new model takes up about 12 to 15% of the operational computing capacity that NOAA has at the environmental prediction center, which is located in College Park, Maryland.

According to NOAA, the computer model starts out with a three-dimensional picture of the atmosphere one hour before the forecast, and ingests observations from a variety of sources, from weather stations on the ground to data from commercial aircraft flying in the skies above. It brings in radar imagery every 15 minutes to help the model understand where precipitation is moving and how it’s developing. The model’s hourly output provides 15-minute snapshots of weather conditions, which could help the NWS in its goal to transition from warning of a storm’s formation to issuing warnings based on storm forecasts.

“It actually knows about current radar reflective information,” said Benjamin, who led the research team that developed the model, “and it’s able to represent that and update it every hour.”

The HRRR update comes at the same time that the NWS is boosting its computing power for its other weather models, which in recent years have fallen behind Europe and Japan in their computing power and accuracy.

“Implementation of the HRRR is just one of many model improvements made possible with NOAA’s boost in its supercomputing power for weather prediction,” said Louis Uccellini, NWS director, in a press release.

The NWS has been beset by a series of technical glitches in the past several months, with critical portions of its website and warning dissemination system going down for hours at a time.

Read more: http://mashable.com/2014/09/30/new-weather-forecast-model-can-pinpoint-thunderstorms-up-to-15-hours-in-advance/

Is Jupiter Earth’s Friend or Foe?


Jupiter’s largest moon, Ganymede, ducks behind the red giant once every seven days.

Is Jupiter a friendly planet, Earth’s enemy, or perhaps both? For decades, scientists have talked about how the giant gas planet keeps some asteroids from striking our small world, while others have pointed out that Jupiter’s gravity could send some civilization-shattering asteroids our way.

While that debate goes on, a subtler question arises about how influential Jupiter was in the early Solar System. Jupiter is by far the heavyweight planet in the Solar System, weighing in at 320 Earth masses. Its gravity not only influences small asteroids that go by, but also tugs on other planets in the solar system – including our own.

What if Jupiter had had a more eccentric orbit? Could that have affected the habitability of Earth? A new peer-reviewed study published on preprint site Arxiv, called “The role of Jupiter in driving Earth’s orbital evolution,” examines these questions in more detail. It was presented at the Australian Space Science Conference.

At first blush it appears Jupiter’s position in the solar system could vary greatly without hurting life’s beginnings as we know it, but more studies of how other planets influence Earth’s climate are needed before we can better understand what’s going on, the researchers said. Depending on how Jupiter interacts with Earth in different scenarios, Earth’s orbit could vary dramatically, thereby influencing the amount of sun we receive on the surface. Once we begin to figure out the ranges of habitability in the models, this could help us narrow the search for other habitable planets outside the Solar System that have gas giants nearby.

Life-friendly scenarios

Surveys with NASA’s Kepler space telescope and other observatories reveal one great truth about planets: they tend to form in groups. Most planets outside the solar system are found with companions. We’ve also seen an array of planetary systems, including those where gas giants known as “Hot Jupiters” are close to their parent star.

The search for habitability is often focused on finding rocky planets or moons similar in size to the Earth, and ones orbiting at the right distance from a star to make liquid water possible. However, other factors include the variability of a planet’s orbit, or the tilt of its poles, both of which could be influenced by bigger planets in that planet’s solar system.

Researchers got interested in the effects of nearby planets on life after observing the Moon.

“I started looking at the effects of the moon on Earth’s climate,” said University of London geologist David Waltham, a co-author of the study. “It’s often said the moon stabilizes the Earth’s axis. It’s wrong. It actually nearly destabilizes the axis.”

Certainly, if you suddenly took the Moon away, the Earth’s axis would destabilize. But Waltham said the better question is to ask what would happen if there was a larger moon from the beginning.

“Any initially stable planet will eventually become unstable as its spin slows but, without a moon, this could take tens or hundreds of billions of years,” Waltham said.

“Having a moon increases the rate with which the spin slows so that, in Earth’s case for example, it will only take 6 billion years (from formation) for the Earth’s axis to become unstable.”

In a nutshell, taking the Moon away today is not the same thing as not having a Moon in the first place.  We’ve had 4.5 billion years of lunar-generated spin-deceleration.

From there, Waltham began considering scenarios where moons would not destabilize a planet as quickly. One of them would be if the solar system was precessing, or moving, more slowly. This led him to wonder about the influence of other planets on Earth, a question also preoccupying Jonti Horner, an astronomer and astrobiologist at the University of Southern Queensland, who is affiliated with the Australian Centre for Astrobiology.

Jupiter on the move

The researchers ran models of our Solar System. With each iteration, seven of the eight planets in the solar system are in the same starting conditions in terms of mass, location and orbit. The eighth, Jupiter, kept the same mass but was moved around in various ways.

The researchers used different orbital eccentricities ranging from perfectly circular to orbits that are moderately eccentric, or elliptical, where Jupiter’s closest and furthest distances range 20 percent further than usual. In distance terms, this means Jupiter would rove as much as two astronomical units or Earth-sun distances in its orbit, ranging from 4.2 AU from the Sun to 6.2 AU from the sun.

In addition, the authors moved the entire orbit of Jupiter inwards and outwards (testing what would happen if it had formed closer to the Sun, or further away), and at each new location, again tested a range of orbital eccentricities between circular and moderately eccentric. This meant that, in their most extreme close-in scenario, Jupiter came all the way in to 3.4 AU at perihelion, while in the most extreme distant scenario, it ranged out to over 7.4 AU from the Sun.

Using tens of thousands of permutations, Waltham and Horner stepped forward each simulation through a million years of time, recording Earth’s orbital parameters every 100 years and then charting the results.

“The default assumption is this is something that is important,” Horner said. “There’s a lot of flexibility where Jupiter will be, and you would assume that you’d have a very smooth, very gentle variation in how the Earth’s orbit behaves over time.”

The model showed that most of Jupiter’s locations resulted in little change in Earth’s orbit and tilt, although the effect on Earth’s climate is unclear. Horner said he is working with James Gilmore, a climatologist at University of London, to better understand how changes in the Earth’s tilt or orbit would affect its habitability. Changing the tilt would affect the seasons, while changing the orbit would alter the amount of sun on the surface.

Waltham, meanwhile, says there is a discrepancy between the results in this study and a previous one he had done with analytical equations showing that Jupiter’s position has a striking influence on Earth’s climate. While he believes this study is more accurate, he wants to go back to his earlier work to resolve the difference.

Searching for life beyond Earth

Although this simulation dealt specifically with the Earth-Jupiter relationship, there are implications for worlds that are beyond our Solar System’s reaches, the researchers said. Take solar systems that are comprised of planets orbiting in spaces as small as Mercury’s orbit of the Sun.

“It’s about spacing,” Waltham said. “I think there is a strong implication that compact solar systems are less likely to have planets with stable axes, which makes them less likely to be habitable.”

That said, he warns there are no “absolute rules” about habitability. There could be scenarios where the axis moves too quickly for complex life to keep up, but simple life forms such as bacteria are be able to evolve fast enough to adapt to temperature changes.

Horner, meanwhile, is examining scenarios under which giant planets send giant impactors, such as asteroids, towards inner planets. For Earth, a Jupiter-sized planet is both a good and a bad thing. The gas giant absorbs some impacts from meteorites, but also alters the orbits of small bodies and could send them towards Earth.

He added that the new research underscores how a small change in parameters could change habitability wildly, pointing to the need to look at more solar systems in formation to see under what conditions planets form. Examining new solar systems will be a strength of NASA’s forthcoming James Webb Space Telescope, which is launching into space in 2018.

Horner emphasized that the numerous simulations his team ran on Jupiter’s influence in the solar system shows that where planets end up is often a result of chance as much as physics.

“Every object you add to [a planetary] system adds complexity, and the end result is a result of random chances,” said Horner. “So if you change something very small when the solar system is forming, it’s kind of chaotic.”

This article originally published at Space.com

Read more: http://mashable.com/2014/06/01/jupiter-earth-stable-axis-habitability/

Experts discuss extreme weather and climate change reporting at the Media Summit


Image: Alexander Gerst/ESA/NASA/Associated Press

Climate change is a critical discussion in this day and age, and communicating its intricacies can be a challenge. At the Mashable Media Summit we’ve added a session on telling the stories of climate change in the digital age.

Eventbrite - Mashable Media Summit: Formats of Creativity

The session, titled “Talking About the Weather: Telling Extreme Weather and Climate Change Stories in the Digital Age,” will be led by Mashable’s Senior Climate Reporter Andrew Freedman and will analyze the most effective ways to communicate climate change given the multitude of perspectives on the climate change issue.

Speakers joining this session include:

  • Neil Katz, Editor in Chief/ V.P. of Digital Content, The Weather Channel

  • Bernadette Woods Placky, Meteorologist and Climate Matters Program Director, Climate Central

Other previously announced sessions at Media Summit will include media experts like Pete Cashmore, Mashable‘s founder and CEO; Jill Abramson, Harvard University lecturer; Joanna Coles, editor in chief of Cosmopolitan magazine; and Piper Kerman, author of Orange Is the New Black in conversation with Larry Smith, founder of Smith Magazine.

The Media Summit is a one-day conference analyzing the impact of technology on the media industry, with an emphasis on the evolution of storytelling. Speakers will discuss media trends like the rise of big data and mobile, the impact of global social media campaigns, how to use visual platforms to enhance your story and much more.

For a full list of speakers and agenda, check out the Media Summit website. Ticket prices will increase on Thursday, so make sure to reserve your spot early.

Read more: http://mashable.com/2014/11/25/climate-session-media-summit/

NASA and NOAA Agree: 2014 Was Hottest Year On Record

Though it might be hard to believe right now since the Northern Hemisphere is currently experiencing the coldest part of winter, our average global temperatures are increasing at a worrying rate. NASA and NOAA have analyzed the data independently of one another and yet have arrived at the same conclusion: 2014 is the warmest year on record since 1880. This is the 38th consecutive year with above average surface temperatures. The dataset has been released by NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS).

“NASA is at the forefront of the scientific investigation of the dynamics of the Earth’s climate on a global scale,” NASA’s John Grunsfeld said in a press release. “The observed long-term warming trend and the ranking of 2014 as the warmest year on record reinforces the importance for NASA to study Earth as a complete system, and particularly to understand the role and impacts of human activity.”

Surface temperatures in 2014 averaged 0.8° C (1.4° F) warmer than 1880. This doesn’t mean that 1880 was a particularly hot year; it’s just where the instrumental record begins. It might not seem like a significant increase, but it can have an incredible impact on the environment. This increase has been largely attributed to carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere due to human activity.

Those living in the Midwest or East Coast of the United States will remember last year’s Polar Vortex, which brought extreme winter weather to hundreds of millions of people. However, other parts of the country experienced record-setting temperatures during the summer, offsetting the cold experienced during the winter.

Overall, the planet has been growing increasingly warmer for several decades. Variations in weather patterns have created slight cooling periods, but looking at the larger picture shows that temperatures are definitely looking up, and not in a good way. In fact, nine out of the 10 warmest years since the record began have happened after 2000. The exception is 1998, due to the intense effects of El Niño. 2014 was not affected by El Niño.

Image credit: NASA, Hansen et al. (2010)

“This is the latest in a series of warm years, in a series of warm decades. While the ranking of individual years can be affected by chaotic weather patterns, the long-term trends are attributable to drivers of climate change that right now are dominated by human emissions of greenhouse gases,” noted Gavin Schmidt, GISS Director.

Though NASA and NOAA have agreed that 2014 was the warmest year since the Industrial Revolution, they used different methods for data collection. Researchers at GISS combined data from 6,300 weather stations to get land temperatures, while ocean temps were retrieved via ships, buoys, and from the Antarctic. NOAA’s conclusion also came from data collected by ships and buoys, though it made use of satellite and radar data as well.



Read more: http://www.iflscience.com/environment/nasa-and-noaa-agree-2014-was-hottest-year-record

Scientists Think Rivers Of Liquid Nitrogen Once Flowed On Pluto

There are tropics on Pluto. While this may sound counterintuitive, its climate means that there are warmer parts of the world relative to its colder, arctic regions. As new research presented at the 2016 Lunar and Planetary Science Conferencethis week reveals, this diverse climate means that rivers and lakes of liquid nitrogen are likely to form at the surface.

Even with less than half of New Horizons data, scientists are unravelling more and more secrets about the dwarf planet by the day. The latest comes by way of researchers at NASAwho confirm that Pluto despite being on average 5.9 billion kilometers (3.7 billion miles) away from the Sun has seasons.

The central tropical region of Pluto, from 60 north to 60 south, experiences the Sun passing directly overhead. Its arctic region above 30 north experiences prolonged sunlight in the summer months, whilst the arctic region beneath 30 south is utterly frigid in a simultaneous winter.

Pluto is tipped over on its rotational axis at 120, rather wonky compared to Earths 23 tilt. As a result of this, during a northern arctic summer, the region receiving the most heat is its north pole.

Go home Pluto, youre drunk: The extreme axial tilt of the dwarf planet. NASA/Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory/Southwest Research Institute

The dwarf planet wobbles and shakes on its axis as it orbits the Sun just like Earth does, meaning that these arctic regions advance and retreat over cycles of hundreds of thousands of years. One region, however, never experiences arctic climates.

This band, between 13 N and 13 S, appears to have been gouged out, in that theres a dark, deep stripe compared to the rest of the planet. The researchers think that the constant warm band here means that ice and volatiles compounds that evaporate at low temperatures couldnt accumulate here under the Suns constant bombardment.

The dark equatorial band. NASA/Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory/Southwest Research Institute

Incidentally, the icy worlds elliptical orbit means that it moves between 50 Earth-Sun distances at its furthest point from the Sun and 30 Earth-Sun distances at its nearest point. Consequently, the temperature difference between a distant summer and a closer summer are more extreme than almost anywhere else.

This is all still relative, mind you: a summertime peak temperature is still around -200C (-330F). As Pluto takes 248 Earth years to rotate around the Sun, these summers and winters last for more than a century.

A second paper presented at the conference reveals that Plutos atmospheric pressure has varied wildly over its history, driven by these long-term orbital and rotational changes. It has ranged from about one-ten-thousandth right up to up to one-fifth of Earths.

These enormous changes in atmospheric pressure would have a distinct effect on the surface of the world; at higher pressures, the abundant nitrogen at the surface would remain a liquid instead of a gas. This means rivers, floods and lakes of liquid nitrogen may haved existed on Pluto.

Researchers noted that these features would be relatively common around 800,000 years ago, when temperatures were hot enough to lead to widespread melting. There may be some still around today near the equatorial region, although they have yet to be spotted. Frozen lakes, however, have been seen, and these ice reservoirs were almost certainly once liquid.

An enhanced color image of Pluto highlighting its wildly varying geological features. NASA/Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory/Southwest Research Institute

Pluto is the gift that just keeps on giving, it seems. A plethora of papers have recently revealed that Plutos atmosphere isnt disintegrating as much as we previously thought, and most significantly, the surface is active essentially meaning that mountain building and perhaps cryovolcanism is still happening on this distant, icy sphere.

Above is a video of the research presented from the LPSC.

Photo Gallery

Read more: http://www.iflscience.com/space/pluto-has-rivers-liquid-nitrogen-extreme-seasons-and-chaotic-atmosphere

Blizzard Reserves Full Fury for Canadian Meteorologists During Live Report

The blizzard that bypassed New York City on Tuesday night went on to became one of the strongest winter storms to churn the waters of the Northwest Atlantic Ocean, striking Canada with its full fury.

he storm slammed the Canadian provinces of Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island and Newfoundland, bringing winds equivalent to a Category 3 hurricane, waves that exceeded 45 feet in height, and close to two feet of wind-blasted snow.

The storm was so strong that reporters for The Weather Network, the Canadian equivalent to The Weather Channel, had trouble battling the elements during their live shots. In this video, Weather Network meteorologists Chris Scott and Mark Robinson were wiped out of camera-range at about the one minute mark during a report from Grand Etang, Nova Scotia.

According to Weather Underground chief meteorologist Jeff Masters, Grand Etang recorded peak sustained winds of 70 miles per hour, with gusts to 102 miles per hour. This location, Masters said, can experience especially strong southeast winds enhanced by nearby terrain. “These southeasterly winds travel up over Cape Breton and a funneling effect intensifies them as they blow downslope toward the Gulf of St. Lawrence,” he said in a blog post on Thursday.

The storm was noteworthy for intensifying so quickly, going from an ordinary low pressure system to a monstrous storm with a central pressure of 955 millibars — which is about as strong as a winter storm can get in this area.


Visible satellite image of the blizzard on March 26

Read more: http://mashable.com/2014/03/27/blizzards-wipes-out-two-canadian-reporters/

Antarctic Ice Melt Rate Has Doubled Since 2010, Study Finds


A glacial ice shelf seen from the air.
Image: NASA Operation IceBridge

A European Space Agency satellite has found that Antarctica has been shedding ice at an accelerated pace compared to when the continent was last surveyed, backing up other research that has detected similar trends. The study, accepted for publication in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, comes one week after other studies claimed that the “collapse” of some glaciers in the West Antarctic Ice Sheet may be inevitable, due to manmade global warming and other factors.

The new research, by a team of researchers in the U.K., used observations from the CryoSat-2 satellite to produce the first estimate of the volume and mass change of nearly the entire Antarctic ice sheet. The data used in the study included more than 455,000 independent estimates of changes in the land elevation of the vast ice sheets covering Antarctica, both in the western part of the continent, where ice is melting more rapidly, and in the east, where the ice is considered to be more stable, for the time being at least.

Three years of observations, between 2010 and 2013, from the CryoSat-2 satellite show that the Antarctic ice sheet is now losing about 160 billion metric tons of ice each year –- twice as much as when it was last surveyed during the 2005 to 2010 period.

Elevation Changes

Recent land elevation changes via the CryoSat-2 satellite, showing the greatest amount of sinking land in West Antarctica.

Image: European Space Agency

The CryoSat-2 satellite, which is operated by the European Space Agency, uses high-tech altimeter instruments to detect changes in the height of the ice sheet, and see whether it is gaining or losing mass.

According to the study, the average elevation of the Antarctic ice sheet fell by 0.74 inches per year between 2010 and 2013. However, far more rapid rates of land elevation changes, which are a sign of a thinning ice sheet that is discharging more water into the ocean and thereby raising global sea levels, occurred in West Antarctica, the study found.

In the Amundsen Sea Embayment region of West Antarctica, where glaciers terminate in the ocean and extend over the waters via floating ice tongues, six major glaciers are experiencing rapid rates of retreat. These glaciers are being eaten away from underneath due to warm ocean waters that have been driven toward the continent by shifting wind patterns that have in turn been linked to manmade global warming, as well as natural climate variability. For example, the Smith Glacier has been sinking at nearly 30 feet per year, the Cryosat data showed.

“We find that ice losses continue to be most pronounced along the fast-flowing ice streams of the Amundsen Sea sector, with thinning rates of 4 to 8 meters per year near to the grounding lines –- where the ice streams lift up off the land and begin to float out over the ocean –- of the Pine Island, Thwaites and Smith Glaciers,” said lead author Malcolm McMillan of the University of Leeds in the U.K. in a press release.

Using observations of recent rates of ice loss and model-based projections of the future, two studies published in scientific journals last week found that a slow-motion “collapse” of parts of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet may be inevitable, due in large part to manmade climate change and other factors. This could raise average global sea level by up to 15 feet, inundating highly populated coastal areas around the world.

The new study does not explicitly address that conclusion, but it does underscore the rapid melting that is taking place in the West Antarctic Ice Sheet in particular. In West Antarctica, the satellite data shows a mass loss of about 134 billion metric tons of ice per year, which is 31% greater than over the 2005 to 2011 period.

“Our results are in broad agreement with these previous studies. We detect widespread thinning of this part of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, which is what you would be expect to see from an ice sheet in a state of irreversible long-term collapse,” said Malcolm McMillan, a research fellow at the University of Leeds, in an email to Mashable. “I should add that our study focuses on providing an up-to-date assessment of how the ice sheet has changed in the last 3 years, whereas one of the previous studies… uses models to investigate how the ice sheet may evolve in the future.”

East Antarctica is losing a relatively small amount of 3 billion metric tons of ice per year, the study found, and McMillan described that part of Antarctica as “roughly in balance.”

Sea Level Rise

Projections of global mean sea level rise over the 21st century, based on different emissions scenarios.

Image: U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Although the study did not find a significant change in the elevation of the interior East Antarctic Ice Sheet, it shows for the first time that the thinning of the Totten glacier in that region extends to the point where the ice meets the land surface below, known as the grounding line. Overall, the researchers found that West Antarctica, the Antarctic Peninsula and East Antarctica have all been losing mass, albeit at different rates.

The Antarctic Peninsula, which is the fastest-warming region on the continent, has been shedding about 23 billion metric tons of ice per year, the study found. Changes in snowfall amounts have helped balance out some of the ice losses there and especially in eastern Antarctica.

For Antarctica as a whole, the study found the current rate of ice sheet mass loss to be about 160 billion metric tons of ice per year. The extra water pouring into the sea is raising sea levels by about 0.1 inches per year, the study found.

That may seem small at first, but over time, especially when combined with other sources of sea level rise such as melting Greenland glaciers and the expansion of seawater as ocean temperatures increase, it adds up. In addition, there are no guarantees that the current rate will be maintained, since many studies have shown the likelihood of a higher rate of sea level rise as global warming continues.

“Antarctica is contributing more to sea level rise than previous measurements suggested. It is essential that we continue to monitor the ice sheet to understand how, and why, it is changing,” McMillan said. While the study only includes data for the past three years, the observations extend a longer satellite record that dates back to the early 1990s, McMillan said. This data helps scientists make conclusions about how Antarctica’s ice sheets are changing.

The most recent report from the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projected a global average sea level rise of between about one to three feet, although that report did not take the new findings on Antarctic ice melt into account.

Read more: http://mashable.com/2014/05/19/antarctic-ice-melt-accelerating/